美联储不动如山 伯老：紧缩政策远在天边
2011年06月23日09:16 来源：西本资讯摘要：美联储周三公布了本年度第4次利率决议，一如市场预期般维持利率以及量化宽松政策不变。联储政策声明及会后伯南克讲话的整体措辞较4月政策会议未有较大变动。根据对美联储表态的初步揣度，联储收紧货币政策依然遥遥无期。
美联储：货币政策维持不变美经济复苏步伐即将加速
美联储周三在声明中称，尽管日本灾变事件冲击下供应链中断以及食品及能源价格一度走高对美国就业市场及整体经济复苏构成压力，但联储预期整体复苏步伐的迟滞现象将是暂时的。与此同时，家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。
声明称，从目前的经济形势来看，失业率依然居高不下。但委员会预计随着美国经济复苏步伐将在之后的几个季度中开始加速，失业率将恢复并向委员会双目标水准靠拢。
委员会在本次会议中决定维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，以及将在2011年第二季结束前完成购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债。委员会将定期检讨证券购买的进度和资产购买计划整体规模，并在需要时作出调整，以最好的达到就业最大化和物价稳定。
此外，委员会将维持联邦基金利率在0-0.25%的区间不变，并继续预计在包括较低的资源使用率，通胀趋势受到抑制和通胀预期稳定的经济状况影响下，联邦基金利率将在较长时间内持于超低水准。此次政策决定是委员一致投票通过的。
伯南克：将“至少”在数次议息会议中按兵不动
虽然美联储在6月议息会议中继续对未来经济形势作出了乐观预期，但美联储主席伯南克依然秉承“较长一段时期内”维持极低利率政策的立场。这意味着美联储收紧货币政策的时机依然“远在天边”。
美联储主席伯南克在会后的新闻发布会上表示，在通胀受到控制的情况下，美联储可以继续维持利率在极低水平。他表示，不清楚维持极低利率“一段长时间”到底是多久。但可以肯定的是，“一段长时间”至少是两三次货币政策会议，需要强调的是“至少”。
伯南克指出，选择不给出维持低利率明确的时间框架是因美联储希望分析之后的数据。他认为，就如何决定退出刺激措施上，除了根据未来的数据作出判断外别无他法。
他还表示，为美国退出策略设定一个通胀或失业率的具体数字目标“颇为不切实际”。
伯南克补充道，如果美联储将进一步刺激经济，可以购买更多证券、下调支付给银行准备金的利率。
IFR Economics经济学家VimombiNshom表示，美联储声明与其4月声明基本未有较大变动，今日声明中的评估称复苏继续慢于委员会之前的预期，但认为这是因暂时性因素所致。
Nshom认为，美联储声明称就业市场指标不及预期。这样的语调暗示美联储将继续保持宽松政策，在可预见的未来不急于逆转政策，也就是说在今年夏季不会削减资产负债表规模。
CaliforniaCredit Union League高级产业分析师Daniel Penrod表示，美联储声明没有什么实质性的意外，但证实了就业市场的疲弱程度大大超过预期。可能因就业市场疲弱，利率将保持低位。
Penrod指出，“低利率是美联储试图刺激就业成长的唯一途径。低利率令借款成本低，这使得企业得以投资在请员工上。”
| 发布日期 | 2011/06/22 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会4月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐前行，尽管步伐略小于委员会预期。与此同时，整体就业市场的表现也不及预期。不过，随着日本灾变事件对供应链的冲击以及食品及能源价格强势上扬对消费者购买力和支出造成的影响逐渐消退，委员会预计整体复苏步伐的迟滞现象将是暂时的。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。 通货膨胀：尽管通胀近期有所上升，但委员会预计随着能源和其他商品价格升势消退，通胀将放缓至符合或低於委员会的双目标水准。委员会将密切关注通胀和通胀预期的发展。维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达至符合目标水准，委员会在本次会议中决定维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，以及将在2011年第二季结束前完成购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April indicates that the economic recovery is continuing at a moderate pace， though somewhat more slowly than the Committee had expected. Also， recent labor market indicators have been weaker than anticipated. The slower pace of the recovery reflects in part factors that are likely to be temporary， including the damping effect of higher food and energy prices on consumer purchasing power and spending as well as supply chain disruptions associated with the tragic events in Japan. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However， investment in nonresidential structures is still weak， and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation:Inflation has moved up recently， but the Committee anticipates that inflation will subside to levels at or below those consistent with the Committee“s dual mandate as the effects of past energy and other commodity price increases dissipate. However， the Committee will continue to pay close attention to the evolution of inflation and inflation expectations. Continue expanding the holdings of securities:To promote the ongoing economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to keep the target range for the federal funds rate at 0 to 1/4 percent. |
| 备注提示 | 美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议 |
| 发布日期 | 2011/04/27 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会3月会议后获得的信息，美国经济复苏正以温和的步伐进展，总体就业市场正在逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。 通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长。与此同时，市场对全球原油供应的担忧导致3月会议后油价进一步走强，但较长期通胀预期已保持稳定，基本通胀迟滞。维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达致符合目标水准，委员会在本次会议中决定一如11月声明中宣布的继续增持证券仓位。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March indicates that the economic recovery is proceeding at a moderate pace and overall conditions in the labor market are improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. Inflation:Commodity prices have risen significantly since last summer， and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a further increase in oil prices since the Committee met in March. Inflation has picked up in recent months， but longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable， and measures of underlying inflation are still subdued. . Continue expanding the holdings of securities:To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. |
| 备注提示 | 美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议 |
| 发布日期 | 2011/03/15 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：根据美联储公开市场委员会1月会议后获得的信息，经济复苏的根基更为稳固，总体劳动力市场正逐步改善。家庭支出以及设备和软件的商业投资继续增长。然而，非住宅类建筑的投资仍旧疲软，房产市场继续承压。 通货膨胀：自夏季以来，商品价格已经大幅增长，同时最近几周，市场对于全球原油供应的担忧也已令油价大幅飙升。但是，长期通胀预期仍旧维持稳定，基本通胀依然受限。维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为促进经济更为强劲地复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的发展达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定继续实施11月宣布的计划，即扩大证券持仓规模。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that the economic recovery is on a firmer footing， and overall conditions in the labor market appear to be improving gradually. Household spending and business investment in equipment and software continue to expand. However， investment in nonresidential structures is still weak， and the housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation:Commodity prices have risen significantly since the summer， and concerns about global supplies of crude oil have contributed to a sharp run-up in oil prices in recent weeks. Nonetheless， longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable， and measures of underlying inflation have been subdued. Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to continue expandingits holdings of securities as announced in November. |
| 备注提示 | 美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议 |
| 发布日期 | 2011/01/26 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：根据12月FOMC会议以后获得的信息，美联储进一步确认了美国经济复苏正在持续，但是经济增速不足以大幅改善劳动力市场环境。去年年底家庭支出获得了改善，但是仍旧因失业率高企、收入增长温和、家庭财富缩水以及信贷紧缩而受到限制。设备及软件的商业支出正在增加，但是非住宅建筑的投资仍旧疲软。同时雇主仍旧不愿意增加雇员。房产市场继续低迷。 通货膨胀：尽管商品价格已经走高，较长期的通胀预期仍旧维稳，基本通胀水平已经趋于下行。维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济以更为强劲的步伐复苏，并帮助通胀随着时间的推移达到符合目标的水平，委员会决定将继续实施去年11月宣布的扩大持有证券规模的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December confirms that the economic recovery is continuing， though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring about a significant improvement in labor market conditions. Growth in household spending picked up late last year， but remains constrained by high unemployment， modest income growth， lower housing wealth， and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising， while investment in nonresidential structures is still weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed. Inflation:Although commodity prices have risen， longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable， and measures of underlying inflation have been trending downward. Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to continue expanding its holdings of securities as announced in November. |
| 备注提示 | 美联储公开市场委员会委员以全票通过本次利率决议 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/12/14 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金基准利率在0-0.25%不变，并将维持在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元较长期美国国债的计划。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：11月会议后FOMC获得的信息确认了经济复苏正在持续的观点，但是复苏步伐尚不足以降低失业率。居民支出正在以温和的步伐增长，但是仍旧受到高失业率、收入增长温和、家庭财富减少以及信贷收紧的限制。设备及软件的支出正在增加，但是增速较年初缓慢，非居住型建筑的投资仍旧疲软。雇主仍不愿意增加雇员，房产市场继续萧条。通货膨胀：长期通胀预期已经持稳，但是基础通胀继续趋于下行。维持增加证券持仓规模的计划：为了促进经济复苏更为强劲并帮助确保长期通胀水平与美联储的职责目标相一致，FOMC决定继续实施11月宣布的扩大持有债券规模的计划，并将维持现有的将抵押贷款支持证券到期后回笼资金进行再投资的政策。在这个基础上，委员会将在2011年第二季结束前进一步购买6,000亿美元较长期美国国债，每月购入约750亿美元。委员会将定期检视证券购买的进度和购买计划的整体规模，根据新的信息在需要时作出调整，从而最好地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November confirms that the economic recovery is continuing， though at a rate that has been insufficient to bring down unemployment. Household spending is increasing at a moderate pace， but remains constrained by high unemployment， modest income growth， lower housing wealth， and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising， though less rapidly than earlier in the year， while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. The housing sector continues to be depressed.Inflation:Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable， but measures of underlying inflation have continued to trend downward. Continue expanding the holdings of securities: To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to continue expandingits holdings of securities as announced in November. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition， the Committee intends to purchase $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011， a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. |
| 发布日期 | 2010/11/3 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25%，但将在2011年第二季度前进一步购买6000亿美元的美国国债以提振经济。 |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：自9月美联储公开市场委员会会议至今收到的信息进一步证明，美国经济产出以及就业的复苏步伐继续缓慢，家庭支出逐步增长，但仍因失业率高企而受限，收入增长温和，家庭财富减少，同时信贷环境趋紧。设备及软件的商业投资正在增加，虽然增速不及今年早期，非住宅投资继续疲软，雇主仍旧不愿增加雇员，新屋开工持续受挫，较长期的通胀预期已经持稳，但最近几个季度潜在通胀趋于走低。 通货膨胀：委员会将依照法定的目标，寻求促进就业最大化和物价稳定的方法。目前，失业率上升，基本通胀相对委员会认为符合较长期目标的水平较低。增加证券持仓规模：为促进经济更强劲复苏，并帮助确保通胀随着时间的进展达到符合目标的水准，委员会决定增持证券仓位。将维持现有的对到期证券回笼资金再投资的政策，并在此基础上在2011年第二季前进一步购买6,000亿美元的较长期美国国债，每月购买量约为750亿美元。同时，委员会将例行检视证券购买的进度和资产购买计划的整体规模，并在需要时按照新的信息作出调整，从而最大限度地达到就业最大化和物价稳定的目标。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in September confirms that the pace of recovery in output and employment continues to be slow. Household spending is increasing gradually， but remains constrained by high unemployment， modest income growth， lower housing wealth， and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising， though less rapidly than earlier in the year， while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts continue to be depressed. Inflation:Longer-term inflation expectations have remained stable， but measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters. Consistent with its statutory mandate， the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. Currently， the unemployment rate is elevated， and measures of underlying inflation are somewhat low， relative to levels that the Committee judges to be consistent， over the longer run， with its dual mandate.Expand the holdings of securities:To promote a stronger pace of economic recovery and to help ensure that inflation， over time， is at levels consistent with its mandate， the Committee decided today to expand its holdings of securities. The Committee will maintain its existing policy of reinvesting principal payments from its securities holdings. In addition， the Committee intends to purchase a further $600 billion of longer-term Treasury securities by the end of the second quarter of 2011， a pace of about $75 billion per month. The Committee will regularly review the pace of its securities purchases and the overall size of the asset-purchase program in light of incoming information and will adjust the program as needed to best foster maximum employment and price stability. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩相信进一步购买证券弊大于利，高度宽松的货币政策增加了未来金融市场失衡的风险，并随着时间发展，可能导致长期通胀预期的上升，令经济不稳。 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/9/21 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：根据8月FOMC议息会议后所得到的信息，近几个月产出及就业方面的复苏步伐开始放缓。家庭支出正在逐渐增加，但仍旧受到高失业率、居民收入增加温和、家庭财富下降以及信贷紧缩的限制。设备以及软件投资正在增加，但增速低于年初的水平。而对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱。雇主仍不愿招聘员工。房屋开工仍旧受限。银行借贷继续萎缩，但在近几个月有所缓和。通货膨胀：委员会预计，尽管短期内经济复苏的步伐可能较原先预期的要慢，但在物价稳定的情况下，资源利用将逐步恢复至较高水准。目前潜在通胀趋势某种程度上略低，无法长期、最大化地促进就业和物价稳定。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续限制成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平，此后将回升至其认为的符合目标的水准。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in August indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually， but remains constrained by high unemployment， modest income growth， lower housing wealth， and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising， though less rapidly than earlier in the year， while investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak. Employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts are at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract， but at a reduced rate in recent months. The Committee anticipates a gradual return to higher levels of resource utilization in a context of price stability， although the pace of economic recovery is likely to be modest in the near term.Inflation:Measures of underlying inflation are currently at levels somewhat below those the Committee judges most consistent， over the longer run， with its mandates to promote maximum employment and price stability. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to remain subdued for some time before rising to levels the Committee considers consistent with its mandate. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为经济继续温和复苏，因此不再需要维持极低利率更长一段时间的承诺，而这将导致未来经济进一步失衡，并损害经济的长期稳定增长。 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/8/10 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：自6月联邦公开市场委员会议息会议以后，众多信号显示美国产出及就业方面的复苏步伐有所放缓。居民消费正逐渐上涨，但仍旧受到高失业率、经济增长温和、房产价格下滑以及信贷收紧的限制。软件及设备的投资额正在增长，然而，非住宅部门继续维持疲软，企业仍旧不愿意增加雇员。新屋开工维持在疲弱的水平。银行借贷继续萎缩。通货膨胀：近几个季度通胀率趋于下行，随着大量的闲置资源令成本价格承压，长期通胀预期维持稳定，通胀率可能在未来一段时间内受限。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy:Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the pace of recovery in output and employment has slowed in recent months. Household spending is increasing gradually， but remains constrained by high unemployment， modest income growth， lower housing wealth， and tight credit. Business spending on equipment and software is rising； however， investment in nonresidential structures continues to be weak and employers remain reluctant to add to payrolls. Housing starts remain at a depressed level. Bank lending has continued to contract.Inflation:Measures of underlying inflation have trended lower in recent quarters， and with substantial resource slack continuing to constrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为美国的经济正按计划地温和复苏，因此没有理由延长极低利率更长一段时间，这将限制调整必要政策的能力。 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/6/23 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：美国经济复苏在持续，就业市场逐步改善。家庭支出也在增加，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压。企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但对非住宅结构的投资继续保持疲弱，雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决。房屋开工仍处于受压水准。通货膨胀：近几个月，能源和其他商品价格已有所下滑，潜在通胀趋势下滑。由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。 |
| 会后声明重点 | EconomyInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in April suggests that the economic recovery is proceeding and that the labor market is improving gradually.InflationPrices of energy and other commodities have declined somewhat in recent months， and underlying inflation has trended lower. With substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/04/28 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会自3月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续增强，就业市场开始改善。家庭支出增长近期加快，但因失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩而依然受压；企业对设备和软件的开支大幅增加，但雇主仍在招聘人手上犹豫不决，房屋开工小涨，但仍处于受压水准。通货膨胀由于大量的资源闲置可能继续打压成本压力，且长期通胀预期稳定，预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低的水平。 |
| 会后声明重点 | EconomyInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in March suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is beginning to improve.InflationWith substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为不再需要长时间维持低利率，称这一承诺限制了美联储开始小幅升息的灵活性。 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/03/16 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会自1月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场正在稳定。家庭支出显现温和增加，但受失业率高企、收入增长不大、家庭财富下降及信贷紧缩等因素影响，家庭支出依然受压。通货膨胀由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。 |
| 会后声明重点 | Economy”Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in January suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the labor market is stabilizing.InflationWith substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率 |
| 发布日期 | 2010/01/27 |
| 利率动向 | 维持联邦基金利率目标区间在0-0.25% |
| 会后声明重点 | 总体经济表现：美联储公开市场委员会自12月会议以来获得的信息表明，美国经济活动继续强化，就业市场恶化程度减弱。通货膨胀由于资源大量剩余可能继续打压成本压力，而且长期通胀预期稳定，委员会预计通胀将在一段时间内维持在较低水平。 |
| 会后声明重点 | EconomyInformation received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in December suggests that economic activity has continued to strengthen and that the deterioration in the labor market is abating. InflationWith substantial resource slack continuing to restrain cost pressures and with longer-term inflation expectations stable， inflation is likely to be subdued for some time. |
| 备注提示 | 霍恩认为情况已经改变，不再需要长时间维持低利率 |